Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Costa Rica
  • Belize
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,078,594$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,088,401.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 158.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,088,401.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104,242$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{101,123.0}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 135.1)}}\) (asimptote \(101,123.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $170,771$ on 2020-11-26

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,883,264$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,475,075.7}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 224.7)}}\) (asimptote \(17,475,075.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $263,454$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{251,277.9}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 112.7)}}\) (asimptote \(251,277.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,748,607$ on 2020-11-26

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $160,287$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{154,010.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 159.4)}}\) (asimptote \(154,010.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,018$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,927.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 148.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,927.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16,293$ on 2020-11-26

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $135,742$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{148,225.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 204.8)}}\) (asimptote \(148,225.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,679$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,825.1}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 197.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,825.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $50,790$ on 2020-11-26

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,515$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,968.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 227.0)}}\) (asimptote \(7,968.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $131$ on 2020-11-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,363$ on 2020-11-26

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $356,650$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $11,818$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,565.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 58.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,565.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $59,160$ on 2020-11-26

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,681$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{109,202.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 158.4)}}\) (asimptote \(109,202.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,892$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,877.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 139.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,877.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $56,435$ on 2020-11-26

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $120,685$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{115,409.8}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 145.8)}}\) (asimptote \(115,409.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,133$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,829.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 123.5)}}\) (asimptote \(3,829.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,246$ on 2020-11-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 81%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $37,884$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,977.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 134.3)}}\) (asimptote \(34,977.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,098$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,018.1}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 131.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,018.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,191$ on 2020-11-26